The bout between Roger Huerta and Clay Guida was supposed to provide some answers. Is Huerta for real? Can Guida perform in the UFC, in the spotlight, against top opponents? The incredible fight that ensued between the two did provide answers. The only problem is that the answer to both questions is “sometimes.”

For Huerta, the fight spoke volumes about his heart but left questions about his standing among the elite at 155 pounds. Despite gutting out the win, Huerta looked utterly lost for portions of the fight and was dominated for much of the second round. For Guida, Huerta becomes another fighter he was beating but did not ultimately defeat. Though he had Huerta rocked toward the end of the second round, Guida – who had gone to a decision in seven of his last 10 fights – could not finish.

FightMetric, the world’s first comprehensive MMA statistics system, tracked this fight in detail. Though the third round contained a quick, dominating, and impressive performance by Huerta, the preceding two rounds told a different tale. The following are some statistical results from the first two rounds of the fight:

Stand-up Striking Stats

On the feet, the two were remarkably even. Though he is often characterized as a wild striker, Guida actually landed more than half of his strikes, connecting on 55% of strikes on the feet. He consistently landed a stiff jab, though it was most often thrown in isolation. Guida landed few combinations on the feet and did not mix up with his targets, attempting only seven strikes to the body or legs.

Conversely, it was Huerta who tended to throw combinations, but his were somewhat wild and inaccurate. Connecting on 22 of 56 strikes (or 39%), Huerta landed two fewer power strikes and was dropped by a right hand from Guida in the second round.

Ground Striking Stats

The real striking disparity was on the ground, where Guida controlled most of the action. Able to take Huerta down almost at will, Guida pounded on Huerta with rights and lefts from the guard and with powerful knees to the body from side control. Huerta, striking mostly from the bottom, could not attempt many strikes of consequence and threw small jabs to Guida’s head more to defend than to attack.

Grappling Statistics

The first thing that stands out is that Guida succeeded on all of his takedown attempts, including one slam. This is particularly impressive given that the five non-slam takedowns all came on shots from the outside, which have a historically lower success rate than clinch takedowns.

Once on the ground, Guida was able to pass guard seven times – three times to half-guard, once to side control, and three times to Huerta’s back. Huerta negated most of those passes without taking too much punishment and was able to sweep Guida twice. It was Huerta who had the edge in submissions (aside from the final, winning submission) attempting a kimura and kneebar compared to one submission, a rear-naked choke attempt in the first round, from Guida.

Round Scoring

The first round was a lot closer than one would have been led to believe by some of the commentary on the broadcast. Using FightMetric’s scoring system, which is based on historical data to determine what truly affects fight outcomes, Huerta holds a slight 41-33 lead in the striking score, with Guida holding the advantage in grappling 99-77. The combined total gives Guida the round 132-117 on the strength of his takedowns (especially the slam) and consistent passes to dominant position (side control once and back control twice).

The second round brought the grappling disparity into clearer focus. Guida landed all three of his takedowns with ease and maintained ground control the entire time, unlike the first round where he was swept twice. On the feet, the striking went back-and-forth for parts of the round, but turned sharply in Guida’s favor after rocking Huerta with a right hand late in the round. On the strength of the knockdown and the power shots that followed on the ground, Guida doubles Huerta’s score, winning the round 206-103.

Final Thoughts

Of course, winning those first two rounds means little to Guida in the end. Huerta came out strong in the third, landed knees and punches on the feet that stunned Guida and caused him to dive for three unsuccessful takedowns in desperation. One of those failed takedowns led to the back control and subsequent rear-naked choke that ended the fight. Huerta walks away with a well-deserved victory, but also with a crucial to-do list. At the top must be takedown defense. If the question was one of Huerta’s standing among the upper echelon of the lightweight division, it’s hard to answer favorably after watching him stuff none of Guida’s six takedown attempts. It’s easy to imagine Huerta getting taken down and controlled by the likes of Sean Sherk, Joe Stevenson, or even Tyson Griffin, who Guida could only take down on four of 14 attempts.

Guida walks away with the consolation that he gives fans plenty of entertaining action, but more significantly, he has another loss on his record. And unlike his decision loss to Tyson Griffin – another candidate for Fight of the Year – this one comes with no controversy. FightMetric scores favored Guida over Griffin in that fight by a score of 227-203, though it’s the decision of the three ringside judges that matters. Many people feel that Guida should have won that fight. And after leading Huerta by a score of 336-220 after two rounds, it’s hard not to feel the same way here.